Oscar Contest Taps ‘Crowd Wisdom’ to Predict Winners


Are the Oscars getting too predictable? This crowd-sourced contest has a strong track record of predicting the Academy Awards by compiling opinions from movie-lovers worldwide. This could be the year it forecasts every single winner.

NEW YORK, NY (February 19, 2016) — A crowd-sourced Oscar prediction contest called Can You Beat the Crowd?, which has a strong track record for forecasting Academy Award winners, reopens today with hopes of a perfect score on Oscar night, February 28.

Unlike forecasts made by industry pundits, prediction markets or computer algorithms, Can You Beat the Crowd? assembles its “crowd wisdom” from the online votes of the movie-going public. It boasts an 80 percent success rate over the past 11 years, including a best-ever 23 out of 24 Oscars in 2014.

The contest officially opens to the public for its 12th season today, presented by arts blog Poor Stuart’s Almanac at poorstuart.com.

“Movie lovers have a lot more information this year from all the award shows preceding the Oscars, and so much scrutiny of the Academy’s voting tendencies,” said contest producer Stu Rohrer, publisher of Poor Stuart’s Almanac. “This could be the year we get them all.”

The contest hopes to liven up the Oscar night proceedings for movie fans who can follow their results in real time on smartphones and laptops, Rohrer said. “It gives them some skin in the game.”

“Our Crowd Favorites have proven to be an excellent cheat-sheet for office Oscar pools,” he added.

Can You Beat the Crowd? invites movie-lovers to add their predictions on the free website at poorstuart.com. Players whose individual predictions “beat the crowd” are eligible for prizes including a one-year subscription to Netflix.

The Can You Beat the Crowd? internet platform also powers private Oscar pools, and provides online ballots for in-person Oscar parties.

The contest was inspired by the 2004 book “The Wisdom of Crowds” by New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki, which is awarded every year as a runner-up prize.

More information:

Stu Rohrer, producer
SRmedia Digital Publishing LLC
(212) 316-7875

Oscar and Academy Awards are registered trademarks of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences

“Can You Beat the Crowd?” and Poor Stuart’s Almanac are produced by SRmedia Digital Publishing LLC and have no affiliation with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

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